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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

The First Face of Janus - 2008 Scored!

Below are Porcupine's Predictions for the year 2008.

So what was Porcupine's track record for 2007? These were predictions from New Year's Eve, 2007 that Porcupine still believed would come to pass.

A chastened Porcupine reviews his 2008 predictions, and exposes the danger of predicting with the heart instead of the head below.

In both 2007 and 2008, this prediction netted Porcupine a score of Zero, but a stubborn Porcupine believes it it a matter of - not yet....
Fidel Casto will die, and Congress will seize the opportunity to normalize relations with Cuba.

Next -

Justice John Paul Stevens will die this year, giving Bush his third choice for the Court.

Zero for this – Porcupine vastly underestimated the Justice’s staying power. At least this year, Porcupine didn't forecast a hurricane for Cape Cod!
Here are the others, along with a self-imposed score:

Gov. Deval Patrick will file his second budget as Governor with a heavy reliance on gambling revenues to justify expansions in local aid, making it clear that without a casino bill, local aid will be cut. Speaker Sal DiMasi will retaliate with a House budget that guts all of the Governor's pricey new initiatives like biotech and the housing funding, and will make it clear that the Legislature will not spend money that it does not and may never have. It will fall to Senate President Therese Murray to make peace, telling the Governor that you can't write a budget with pie-in-the-sky revenue forecasts, and telling DiMasi that money can be found in a reasonable way. Her brokering of the situation catapults her into power, setting her up to become the Billy Bulger of the 21st century.

90 percent. Patrick did indeed file such a budget, and DiMasi did file such a countermanding House budget. President Murray's role is less clear, although Porcupine remains convinced of her behind-the-scenes effectiveness, so the Bulger Tiara did not settle upon her red hair - yet.

The House will lose its leader as Speaker Sal DiMasi will not finish out the Session in his current position. The battle to replace him will be between John Rogers and Gene O'Flaherty at first, but it is Ron Mariano who will emerge as the next Speaker.

40 percent. Another not-yet as far as DiMasi is concerned - and the Cognos scandal wasn't known last New Year's - but Porcupine got only Rogers among the supporting players in the soap opera.

Governor Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination for President, and Sen. Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. Gov. Romney will be elected the 44th President of the United States.

Zero. A total zero - although Porcupine remains convinced that these were the best candidates in their respective parties, and would not rule out this fight card in the future.

Casino gambling will not be legalized in Massachusetts by the Legislature, but the Wampanoags will push ahead with their Middleboro casino plan after the Federal Government places their land in trust; it will be profitable enough to begin with poker and roulette, as they will not have to pay the state and the tribe will begin to lobby for the legalization of slots in 2009, supported by Suffolk Downs and other racetracks, who also want slot machine gambling.

70 percent. The land trust application has not yet been ruled on, but Porcupine expects it to be approved. Likewise, in light of the vote to abolish dog racing, the Legislature's impetus to approve racinos is straightened.
Yarmouth will become the first town to vote to leave the Cape Cod Commission, with at least one other town joining the quest for special legislation. The charm offensive of the new director, Paul Niedzwicki, will not be enough to convince the towns that the Commission is worth the trouble or taxes any longer.
Zero. Wishful predicting again. Or Niedzwicki is more charming than Porcupine realized...

Barnstable's Charter Commission will recommend that Barnstable become the first city on Cape Cod, with a Plan E 'strong manager-weak mayor' government. This charter will be narrowly defeated, due mainly to disapproval of seeking city status, and the Charter Commission will continue its work into 2009.

Twenty. The Charter Commission does indeed soldier on, and no real consensus has emerged - Plan E may be a real possibility.

Long time County Commissioner Mary LeClair will be replaced with a Democrat, the first crack in the long time Republican domination of county government. Controversial District Attorney Michael O'Keefe will be re-elected handily.

100 percent. And nobody regrets its accuracy more than Porcupine...although the election of Register Perrino remains a bright spot.

The Cape Wind wind farm project will receive the go-ahead from the Minerals Management Services, and Sen. O'Leary's ocean zoning bill will not pass in this Session, and its obstructionism will become moot. The Cashman project in Buzzards Bay in the marine sanctuary will not be approved, however.

30 percent. Ocean Zoning did pass, Cashman's farm is still in limbo, but the MMS review has passed the SEVEN YEAR mark, and is still fending off clandestine Democrat attacks.

"Porcupine had an average score of 48% for 2007 predictions - not bad, considering two out of ten were zero. But he can do better!", Porcupine wrote a year ago today. Indeed, perhaps he can, but 2008 was not that year as the average plummeted to 35%, with four zeros.
"See you New Year's Eve, 2008, to see how accurate these are!" - Well, here we all are, and as an adherent of personal responsibility, Porcupine is ready to admit his error (although when he's right, he's really right...)

Undeterred, Porcupine will post ten predictions for 2009 tomorrow, to be scored in 2010.


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